California's proposal to ban the sale of new diesel and gasoline-powered automobiles by 2035 is under fire this week, with Republican senators targeting three exceptions that allow the state to impose requirements that go beyond federal law. California alone accounts for 11% of all new passenger car sales in the United States. With many other states implementing their pollution limits, the CARB requirements might effect up to 40% of the market, requiring an industry change. If the Senate effectively denies these waivers, the effort for an EV transition may stagnate or stall.
Currently, California Governor Gavin Newsom's plans call for an increasing percentage of zero-emission passenger cars over the next decade. By 2027, the new automobile mix should be 43 percent electric or hydrogen-powered, rising to 68 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035. Plug-in hybrids would still be classified as electric cars, but not normal hybrids. The used-car market would be unaffected by the regulation.
There is also a rule for medium- and heavy-duty trucks on the books. By the 2035 deadline, 40 to 75 percent of new vehicles sold must be zero-emission, replacing their traditional diesel powertrains. A CARB regulation with tighter testing limits for particulate matter and nitrogen oxides is also on the chopping board.
Some automakers will undoubtedly be relieved by a reduction of California pollution requirements, since industry representatives have said the 2035 deadline is unachievable. SEMA, the Specialty Equipment Market Association, has also come out against California's EV mandate, alleging that it threatens small businesses' jobs.
Even if the exemptions are reversed or denied, California politicians have shown a willingness to sue. Several states have previously sued the federal government over funding granted to expand the public charging network. There will undoubtedly be significant political maneuvering as the situation develops, and we will update this item once the Senate voting results are published.